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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."